CDG : Technology : Shosteck Group White Paper on TDMA 3G Migration Paths

Table of Contents

An Overview

Defining What 3G May Deliver

A Review of Conventional 3G Migration Paths

Comparing the Migration Paths

Summary & Conclusions

Disclaimer

Acknowledgements

Preface

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GSM or CDMA: The Commercial and Technology Challenges for TDMA Operators

Table of Contents

1	An Overview
	1.1	Introduction
	1.2	Migration Paths and Time Frames for Deployment
	1.3	The Dilemma of TDMA Operators
	1.4	The Two Steps of 3G Evolution

2	Defining What 3G May Deliver
	2.1	Introduction
	2.2	Factors That Constrain High-Bandwidth Transmissions
		2.2.1	Power Budgets and Battery Drain
		2.2.2	Latency
		2.2.3	Bit Error Rate
	2.3	The Cost to Deliver Theoretical Data Rates
	2.4	An Alternative to the High Data Rate 3G Business Model

3	A Review of Conventional 3G Migration Paths
	3.1	Introduction
	3.2	The Migration Path for Current GSM Operators
		3.2.1	General Packet Radio Service
		3.2.2	Enhanced Data [Rate] for Global Evolution
		3.2.3	Universal Mobile Telephone Service
	3.3	The Migration Path for TDMA/IS-136 Operators
	3.4	The Migration Path for cdmaOne Operators
		3.4.1	cdmaOne/IS-95-A
		3.4.2	cdmaOne/IS-95-B
		3.4.3	CDMA2000 1X
		3.4.4	CDMA2000 1x EV-DO
	3.5	CDMA2000 1X as an Alternative for TDMA/IS-136 Operators

4	Comparing the Migration Paths
	4.1	Introduction
	4.2	The Time Required to Develop and Deploy Infrastructure
		4.2.1	Delivering the Infrastructure
		4.2.2	Deploying the Infrastructure
	4.3	The Time Required to Develop and Deploy Handsets
		4.3.1	The “Reality Gap” in Handset Delivery
		4.3.2	The Delivery of GSM 800 Handsets
	4.4	The Delivery of CDMA2000 1X Handsets
	4.5	Backward Compatibility with Legacy Networks and the Full Cost of Infrastructure
	4.6	The Costs of Handsets
	4.7	The Issue of Dual-Mode TDMA-CDMA Handsets

5	Summary and Conclusions

Disclaimer

This is an independent analysis by The Shosteck Group. The CDMA Development Group (CDG) is publishing this white paper for discussion purposes. The CDG and its members may not necessarily support all conclusions made in this white paper.

Acknowledgements

This white paper would not have been possible without the assistance of the dozens of persons from throughout the industry who gave unstintingly of their time to discuss the issues with us. While most preferred to remain anonymous, we deeply appreciate their openness and candor.

Special thanks are due to our UK colleague, Geoff Varrall, principal of RTT Programmes Limited, for his perspectives on the challenges of technology transitions and the pervasiveness of the “reality gap.”

Preface

The Shosteck Group (formerly Herschel Shosteck Associates, Ltd.) is an international telecommunications consultancy, which analyzes and forecasts wireless markets and technologies. The firm has focused on wireless since 1981 – when the industry was in its embryonic state. Since then, it has expanded to encompass the intersect of wireless and the Internet.

The firm gathers, quantifies, analyzes, and interprets information from sources around the globe, including the senior corporate level. Through this process, it translates and condenses raw information into actionable knowledge.

The firm differentiates itself by its historical memory - its experience with the introductions of AMPS and iDEN and the transitions to GSM, TDMA/IS-54 (136), and CDMA/IS-95. These have provided it with an understanding and appreciation of the longer than expected time frames which accompany the deployment of new technologies, the challenges to deliver promised performance, and the always higher than expected costs.

The Shosteck Group holds an heritage in empirical research. This forms the foundation for its in-depth quantitative analyses as well as its qualitative conceptualizations of evolving industry trends.

The company places its analyses in the context of the economic, political, and regulatory forces that affect markets and technologies. This context enables the firm to advise clients of profit opportunities, as well as risks of technology failure, delayed adoption, diminished performance, and/or excessive costs.

Clients of The Shosteck Group include manufacturers, network operators, software developers, Internet companies, financial institutions, regulatory agencies, governments, and consultancies form around the globe.

The Shosteck Group contact information:
Jane Zweig
Chief Executive Officer
The Shosteck Group
11160 Veirs Mill Road, Suite 709
Wheaton, Maryland 20902-2538 USA
Tel: 1 301 589 2259
Fax: 1 301 588 3311
Email: jzweig@shosteck.com
Web link: http://www.shosteck.com